The Future of Energy - Project presentation (in English)
Wind farm revenues: what do the climate models tell us?
Bastien Alonzo, Peter Tankov, Anna Creti, Silvia Concettini , Philippe Drobinski
Investments into wind generation may be hampered by revenues uncertainty caused by the natural variability of the wind, the impact of climate change on wind potential and on future electricity prices, and the regulatory changes. In this study, we quantify the uncertainty of the future revenues and the net present value of wind farms in France, Germany and Denmark and evaluate the cost of support mechanisms needed to guarantee their profitability under present and future climate. We build a localised model for wind power output and a country-level model for electricity demand and prices taking into account hourly variation of wind, load and prices. We find that support mechanisms are needed at current market prices and current climate, and may still be needed under future climate depending on the scenarios of climate change and energy transition.
Presentation by Peter Tankov